Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
